WEL Networks | 2018 Asset Management Plan 114 NETWORK DEVELOPMENT Drivers of Peak Demand The second component of the methodology assesses the drivers of peak demand growth during the forecast AMP period. The drivers are set out below: Hamilton City Residential – residential growth is expected based on the structured development plan by Hamilton City Council. The Rototuna structured plan is supplied from Borman substation. The northern part of the Ruakura structured plan is supplied from Chartwell substation. Rotokauri structured plan will be supplied from Tasman and Avalon substation. Peacockes structured plan will be supplied from Peacockes substation. Waikato District Residential & Agricultural – growth in these areas is expected to be modest and we have assumed a continuation of the historical trend. Te Kauwhata substation demand is adjusted as a result of the Te Kauwhata Structured Plan. Industrial and Commercial – our growth forecast is based on applications received and our discussions with developers. Expected growth is also based on the Hamilton City Council structured plan which indicates Horotiu, Pukete, Rotokauri and Ruakura as industrial areas. The CBD will also see growth in commercial establishments. Distributed Generation – no adjustment has been made for small scale distributed generation due to its limited ability to impact peak demand. This assumption will be reviewed in future forecasts as our understanding improves and distributed generation installations become more prevalent. We have installed a 75 kW solar array on the WEL services building at Maui Street to help improve our understanding of this technology. Load Control – is assumed at current levels throughout the planning period; Temperature impacts – temperature can impact peak demand. Colder winters can increase demand by as much as 10% compared to average winters. This variation is allowed for in our contingency planning; Forecasting Uncertainty All forecasts involve a degree of uncertainty particularly over longer periods. As a result our demand forecast is expected to be less accurate in the later years of the AMP period. The uncertainty will be greater where there are changing circumstances or the potential for new activities. Our development plans and corresponding investments may be amended in subsequent revisions of our AMP reflecting the emerging needs of our customers and stakeholders and changing circumstances on our network. 6.2 CONSUMER CONNECTION This financial year, WEL produced over 1,100 quotes for potential new load on our network, a 30% increase to the previous year. New subdivisions, commercial establishments and industrial factories are being developed in the Hamilton City Council’s structured plans described in the peak demand drivers. Project / Programme Investment Need Estimated cost (in Nominal Price $000) New Connections and upgrades Investment Needed: Accommodate connection request and augment network where required 119,935 The following table summarises the projects, options considered and projected expenditure. Table 6.2.1 Consumer Connection development projects