113 WEL Networks | 2018 Asset Management Plan wel.co.nz NETWORK DEVELOPMENT Network Energy Efficient Operation WEL applies a number of strategies around network energy efficient operation, these include: ƒ ƒ Load management – A few of the transformers on the network operate in overload at times of peak demand. The use of load control will reduce any overload and therefore improve the efficiency of the transformer. This also reduces the loading on the conductors and further improves the efficiency of the network. ƒ ƒ Smart meters – we are utilising the benefits of smart meter for our planning purposes such as proactive power quality and abnormal condition detection, load profiling, identification of distributed generation and revenue assurance. The benefits are described in Chapter 7 for Non-Network Solutions and Support Systems. 6.1.3 INFLUENCE OF EMERGING TECHNOLOGY, DEMAND MANAGEMENT INITIATIVES AND RESIDENTIAL LOAD PATTERNS Emerging Technology Solar generation, electric vehicle and battery storage systems are the main examples of emerging technologies with the potential to impact on the design and operation of our network. At this stage, they do not influence our network planning or investment. Chapter 7 describes our plans for these technologies. Demand Initiatives We assume that the current level of load control will continue through the AMP period. We would expect that the impact of demand initiatives is likely to increase over the AMP period, however this is difficult to quantify at this time. Residential load patterns The residential load patterns have significantly changed over the last three years because of appliance efficiency and number, lighting technology (LED lights), adoption of heat pump technology, shift of hot water heating to gas and use of electrical technology. With the use of smart meters we can achieve load profiling in the distribution transformers. 6.1.4 PEAK DEMAND FORECAST Our network delivered 1,219 GWh of electricity as at the end of 2017 financial year with coincident peak demand of 273MW. This peak demand is the principal driver of our network development investment. Our forecast of peak demand is a fundamental input and determines the expected timing for growth related investment across the network during the AMP period. Forecasting future peak demand is inherently challenging and somewhat subjective. For example, we are currently observing a reduction in the average amount of electricity being delivered to our domestic customers, flat peak demand across the network and increasing amounts of PV being installed. Our approach to developing demand forecasts is discussed in this section, including our assumptions and the level of uncertainty involved. Forecasting Methodology Our forecasting methodology involves a number of components. Each component is assessed and combined to produce our best estimate of peak demands during the AMP period. Establishing Base Demand The most recent peaks were measured at zone substations, GXPs and in total across our network. The peaks between zone substations and their respective GXP are generally not coincident, meaning they generally don’t occur at the same time, due to diversification in customer use. Similarly, there is diversity in peak demand between GXPs and the total network peak demand. One-off events not likely to repeat are eliminated from these actual peaks. This establishes a baseline demand level for our forecasts.